New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has released its updated Long-Range Forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon season, indicating a high probability of above-normal rainfall across the country between June and September. According to the forecast, seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%.
The forecast brings promising news for India’s agriculture sector, particularly for rainfed regions, as the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) — which includes key agricultural belts — is expected to receive above-normal rainfall, creating favourable conditions for the upcoming Kharif cropping season.
Regionally, Central India and the southern Peninsular region are likely to witness above-normal rainfall. Northwest India is expected to receive normal rainfall, ranging between 92% and 108% of the LPA. However, Northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall, with expected values falling below 94% of the LPA.
Looking specifically at June 2025, rainfall is projected to be above normal, with much of the country expected to receive normal to above-normal precipitation. Nonetheless, certain parts of southern Peninsular India, as well as isolated areas in Northwest and Northeast India, may experience below-normal rainfall.
On the temperature outlook, the IMD predicts normal to below-normal maximum temperatures across most of the country in June. However, above-normal daytime temperatures are likely in many parts of Northwest and Northeast India. Minimum temperatures are expected to stay above normal across much of India, though parts of Central India and the southern Peninsula may see normal to below-normal night temperatures.
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