Bhubaneswar: Amid growing concerns over a potential cyclone in Odisha this October, a cyclonic circulation has formed over the Bay of Bengal, fueling speculation about a possible storm in the coming days, based on multiple weather model predictions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that a cyclonic circulation developed over the central Andaman Sea on October 19. According to the IMD, this system is expected to give rise to a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal and the adjoining north Andaman Sea by October 21. The system could intensify further into a depression by October 23 as it moves northwestwards over the central Bay of Bengal.
With the formation of the low-pressure area, wind speeds over the central Bay of Bengal are predicted to reach 45-55 kmph by October 23, potentially increasing further over the northern Bay of Bengal after October 24.
Odisha’s coastal regions are expected to receive heavy rainfall from October 23, with the intensity of rainfall likely to increase on October 24, IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra informed. However, he added that it is still too early to make precise forecasts regarding the strength of the winds and rainfall, as the situation will become clearer after the low-pressure area fully develops.
Regarding the possibility of a cyclone, Dr. Mohapatra said, “We will have a clearer picture after October 21. Although several weather models suggest a potential cyclonic storm, the IMD will issue a more accurate forecast in due course.”
Different global models have varying predictions about the system’s development:
- The IMD’s GFS model suggests a low-pressure area by October 22, a depression by October 24, and a potential cyclonic storm moving towards the Odisha coast by October 26, continuing towards West Bengal by October 29.
- The NCUM(G) model predicts a low-pressure area by October 21, with a cyclonic storm developing by October 24 and possibly crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 25.
- The ECMWF model points to a cyclonic storm forming by October 23 and crossing the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts by October 25.
- The NCEP GFS model indicates a potential very severe cyclonic storm by October 21, which could cross the West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts by October 24.
With several models indicating the possibility of a cyclonic storm, the authorities are closely monitoring the system’s progression to ensure timely warnings and necessary precautions for the coastal areas.
