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IMD Updates Long-Range Forecast for 2024 Southwest Monsoon Season

New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) today updated its Long-Range Forecast Outlook for the Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Season (June–September) 2024. The IMD also released the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for June 2024 during a virtual media interaction in New Delhi. Dr. Mritunjya Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, presented the forecast.

Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall across the country is expected to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%, indicating above-normal rainfall for the monsoon season (June to September) 2024.

Region-wise, above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA) is anticipated over Central India and South Peninsular India, normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) over Northwest India, and below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA) over Northeast India.

The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which comprises the majority of rainfed agricultural areas, is also likely to experience above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA).

Most parts of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, except for many areas in northern Northwest India, Northeast India, and the eastern part of Central India and adjoining areas of East India, where below-normal to normal rainfall is likely.

June 2024 Monthly Rainfall and Temperature

Nationwide, normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) is predicted for June 2024. Above-normal monthly rainfall is anticipated in most areas of the South Peninsula, adjoining Central India, and isolated areas of Northwest and Northeast India. Conversely, below-normal rainfall is likely in northern and eastern parts of Northwest India, eastern Central India, and parts of Northeast and southeastern South Peninsula.
Above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are expected over most parts of the country, except for many parts of southern Peninsular India where normal to below-normal temperatures are predicted.

Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are expected across most regions, except for extreme northern parts of Northwest India and a few pockets of East and Northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Above-normal heatwave days are expected over most areas of Northwest India and adjoining Central India during June.

The strong El Niño conditions observed over the equatorial Pacific earlier this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and are currently transitioning towards ENSO-neutral conditions. Climate model forecasts suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions will be established at the beginning of the monsoon season, with La Niña conditions likely to develop later.

Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from global climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.

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